The expected value (also known as mean value) is not the value you “expect” to see, and usually it isn’t even the value most likely to occur.  This term, from probability theory, means the average value that will occur, where the average is weighted by the probability of occurrence. For example if the value will be 3 with probability 0.2 and 9 with probability 0.8, then the expected value is: (0.2 x 3) + (0.8 x 9) = 7.8

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